Winning Ugly Is Still Winning

 

The chance of the Browns beating the Ravens and Steelers in successive weeks is about the same chance of being hit by a meteorite as you scratch off a $500,000 winning lottery ticket.  No one can tell me that junior members of the Browns coaching staff aren't looking at each other before meetings start today and saying out of the sides of their mouth, "Dude... Can you believe we won the last two?".  The senior staff members are strutting around like this was all pre-ordained by their own brilliance, which is an excellent strategy in the NFL where you can get fired because someone "decided to make a change".  One day you are doing press conferences on ESPN, and the next you are a tight ends coach at New Mexico State.  Go Aggies.  

It's a fine line with these coaches.  If you exude self-confidence people think you are a winner, but if you exude too much self-confidence then you look like a delusional dipshit like Chargers coach Brandon Staley.  In the NFL you are either striding around like royalty or getting shuffled out the back door in shame.  This week Kevin Stefanski and Co. get to sit around the Thanksgiving table pretending it's no big deal to be sitting in second place in the division and get to say things like "next man up" and "fight through adversity" and "take it one week at a time".  Kevin can tuck into an extra piece of pumpkin pie and his Aunt Gladys can say "He deserves it with all the hard work he's doing." while Kevin pretends not to hear the cooing praise.  It's good to win and have that second piece of pie.

Let's be honest.  The Browns got fortunate to play Pittsburgh with DTR prior to any existing tape on how they would operate the offense.  By scoring first, there was no pressure to air it out and the Browns could move comfortably into the "Don't fuck it up Kid" gameplan.  Pittsburgh adjusted to the Browns flat/screen pass offense in 11 minutes and that was pretty much it for the offensive output.  Well, until the astonishing last drive that is.  I don't know who that guy was in the last two minutes.  Argh looked like a somewhat competent backup quarterback in the first quarter, looked shaky for a long while, and then on the last drive looked better than Watson has in two years.  It is an interesting choice the Browns are going to have with the Flacco signing.  Thompson-Robinson is a much higher variance player with a significantly taller ceiling than Flacco thanks to his running ability.  Flacco is the textbook way the fuck over the hill "game manager" veteran that is unlikely to make horrific mistakes that swing a game in unexpected directions.  Make no mistake, 2023 Joe Flacco is not Super Bowl Joe Flacco.  Dude was unemployed for a reason.  He's spent.  Yet, the Browns defense is good enough that maybe that's all you need.  I dunno.  I guess you go with DTR until he fucks up so badly you discard him like a used tissue.  

The Browns defense once again played out of their minds.  Those guys have to know that they're the only way the team is going to win.  Garrett gets another two sacks and somehow didn't get credit for what appeared to be an obvious safety.  Myles is going to win the Defensive Player of the Year unless the team falls apart.  Pittsburgh had no (0) chance of putting up enough points to win this game without any devastating Browns turnovers.  Kenny Pickett and the Steeler offense is as potent as the Jets, or as Phil Simms said on NFL Today, "They suck ass.".  OK, I might be paraphrasing there, but it's essentially what he said.  I have no clue how you can reliably win NFL games without any offensive firepower, but the Steelers have been doing so and now the Browns have to figure it out too.  The upside for the Browns is that almost anyone they toss behind center is better than Pickett, who I think of as a new version of Mike Tomczak. 

The Browns are going to limit their exposure to mistakes with DTR, which makes sense.  Unfortunately you won't be able to throw the ball to Njoku an eye watering fifteen (15) times every Sunday, especially with 3-4 of those passes careening off his hands.  Cooper had a few targets at the end, but if you are receiver #2 or #3 on a play there isn't much point in even running a route.  The only chance the Browns have to win games is to somehow figure out how to complete some intermediate passes or reliably running the ball.  The cannot under any circumstances fall behind by more than one score.  The Browns will now try to replicate this Steeler victory another seven times.  If I'm you, I start betting the Browns "under" regardless of how absurd that number appears.

This week the team travels to Denver in a classic letdown spot.  The Broncos have very quietly become competitive, winning their last four straight.  It is a tall order for the Browns to beat the Ravens in come from behind fashion on the road, losing the franchise QB, beating the Steelers in a story book last drive from the outgunned rookie QB, to then fly out to altitude and beat a hot Broncos team after a Thanksgiving weekend eating green bean casserole and Honeybaked Ham.  At a certain point the team is going to want to exhale and catch their breath.  The Browns staff can say all the right things about "taking it one game at a time" and "we are only focused on our next opponent", but the team has to be thinking "we've won five of our last six, who wants a nap?".  I think they lose on Sunday.

Here's the thing...  If the Browns can win four more games, they are 100% in the playoffs.  Three will probably do it.  With Denver, Rams, Chicago, Jets, and Cincinnati amongst the next seven games you have to like the Browns chances at a playoff berth.  Success for the 2023 Browns at this point is getting to the Playoffs and playing a close game.  Winning a playoff game would be "wildly exceeding expectations".  If they won a playoff game, the city will lose its mind.  Winning a game with DTR at QB would start up the inevitable fake QB controversy.  The Browns could run the table, win the Super Bowl, and DTR could emerge as the next Brock Purdy Cinderella story but the Browns are starting the below average guy that gets paid $60M a year.  The vexing question for the Browns isn't "Who do we face in the playoffs?" it's "How can we score more than 13 points a game so we get IN the playoffs?".

Go Browns.